Re: Stanton's: Review of May 2023 Sale ?
Posted: Tue May 09, 2023 5:42 pm
What we are witnessing in the broad phonograph market is simply a function of demographics. Music boxes, antique radios / televisions, U.S. stamps, 1930s-40s antique cars and numerous other areas have all seen declines in recent years, due primarily to the changing tastes of the buying public.
People generally like or collect items from their youth, and many of today’s buyers grew up in the 1970s, 80s and even 90s. Pokemon cards, video games, vintage computers and software, movie collectibles (Star Wars and others), 1960s-70s muscle cars, and other things most of us here would not relate to, are quite hot now.
When I was calling auctions in the mid 1980s, large three-dial battery radios from the early and mid 1920s routinely brought $150-$250 dollars. In recent radio auctions, they open at $35, and no one raises their hand. Why? Because few buyers today remember large battery radios. You would have to be over 100 years old to have used one when it was new. No one now relates.
The supply of common phonographs (Victrola IVs, VI, IX, XI, Edison Standards, Homes and Triumphs, and many Columbia disc and cylinder players simply exceeds demand at this point. In fact, if you read old classified ads from the Antique Phonograph Monthly from the mid 1970s, you’ll see Standards and Homes advertised for $200-$300. That’s about what they’re worth today - but factoring in inflation, they would have to be worth about $1,100-$1,700 just to keep pace. (Remember a nice new car could be bought for $5,000 in 1975.)
Now, rare items are generally a different story. There are still a sufficient number of collectors with money who want to own the finest and rarest items. There is no supply-demand imbalance for these items – demand exceeds the very tiny supply for nearly all of these.
Remember, price or value remains a function of supply and demand, and demand remains a function of demographics. The phonograph hobby’s best chance for long term prosperity is to attract and keep a new generation interested in the history of recorded sound.
People generally like or collect items from their youth, and many of today’s buyers grew up in the 1970s, 80s and even 90s. Pokemon cards, video games, vintage computers and software, movie collectibles (Star Wars and others), 1960s-70s muscle cars, and other things most of us here would not relate to, are quite hot now.
When I was calling auctions in the mid 1980s, large three-dial battery radios from the early and mid 1920s routinely brought $150-$250 dollars. In recent radio auctions, they open at $35, and no one raises their hand. Why? Because few buyers today remember large battery radios. You would have to be over 100 years old to have used one when it was new. No one now relates.
The supply of common phonographs (Victrola IVs, VI, IX, XI, Edison Standards, Homes and Triumphs, and many Columbia disc and cylinder players simply exceeds demand at this point. In fact, if you read old classified ads from the Antique Phonograph Monthly from the mid 1970s, you’ll see Standards and Homes advertised for $200-$300. That’s about what they’re worth today - but factoring in inflation, they would have to be worth about $1,100-$1,700 just to keep pace. (Remember a nice new car could be bought for $5,000 in 1975.)
Now, rare items are generally a different story. There are still a sufficient number of collectors with money who want to own the finest and rarest items. There is no supply-demand imbalance for these items – demand exceeds the very tiny supply for nearly all of these.
Remember, price or value remains a function of supply and demand, and demand remains a function of demographics. The phonograph hobby’s best chance for long term prosperity is to attract and keep a new generation interested in the history of recorded sound.
