The Talking Machine Forum — For All Antique Phonographs & Recordings

Over the past year Ive had two victor XVIIIs for sale, both fully cleaned up, with motors and reproducers rebuilt, full sets of albums, original mahogany finishes, etc. One had a few cosmetic issues, the other was a really nice example, the latter ended up selling locally for about 2500, the former for a few hundred less through ebay to a foreign buyer after I listed it here at one point for less than 2000. One forum member who seems to frequently post want ads for these at the time told me how high these prices were and how subjective and misinformed my sense of pricing and value was generally, another person whose opinion I respect seemed surprised about the 2500 sale. I remember not too long ago that this model in decent condition, even without albums, typically sold for 3000/3500. A well regarded dealer who posts regularly on this forum has one for sale now on ebay for about 4500 with no albums, and its condition is no better than my 2500 dollar one. I was just wondering, has the valuation of these machines really become so arbitrary? Are some sellers within the "community" permitted more latitude than others regarding their opinions in setting values and prices merely because of reputation, volume of sales or type of clientele? And Im familiar with the mantra about a thing only being worth what someone else will pay, but I think we can agree that when enough people are willing to pay a certain amount for a certain thing, that thing can be given a more or less generalized value, no?

Just as a general observation one large issue is that many collector groups like ours are aging out and it seems to be hard to get enough younger people interested to replace those who are dying off. Most of the collector organizations that I know about, with the possible exception of some of the antique automobile groups, have seen their membership in steady decline for at least the last quarter century. As we have seen among Forum members, the children of collectors often are not that interested in what they have so more and more stuff finds its way onto the market with fewer and fewer buyers seeking the merchandise. Prices follow supply and demand and that is inexorable like it or not.

And with older collectors like me room is a large factor. I have simply got no room for more stuff despite my fondness for Ord-Hume's first law. And many older people live on reduced incomes.

It is just the way of the world that dealers with a superb reputation are going to find it easier to find well-heeled customers than someone not well known; especially customers who have neither the time nor inclination to do their own restoration work. Such buyers know that they may pay a little more, but that what they get will be a top-quality example and first-rate packing for transportation and not have to worry.

Now being in my mid-70s I look around at the machines I love every day with some concern about their futures when I pass from the scene.

Clay

brianu wrote:Over the past year Ive had two victor XVIIIs for sale, both fully cleaned up, with motors and reproducers rebuilt, full sets of albums, original mahogany finishes, etc. One had a few cosmetic issues, the other was a really nice example, the latter ended up selling locally for about 2500, the former for a few hundred less through ebay to a foreign buyer after I listed it here at one point for less than 2000. One forum member who seems to frequently post want ads for these at the time told me how high these prices were and how subjective and misinformed my sense of pricing and value was generally, another person whose opinion I respect seemed surprised about the 2500 sale. I remember not too long ago that this model in decent condition, even without albums, typically sold for 3000/3500. A well regarded dealer who posts regularly on this forum has one for sale now on ebay for about 4500 with no albums, and its condition is no better than my 2500 dollar one. I was just wondering, has the valuation of these machines really become so arbitrary? Are some sellers within the "community" permitted more latitude than others regarding their opinions in setting values and prices merely because of reputation, volume of sales or type of clientele? And Im familiar with the mantra about a thing only being worth what someone else will pay, but I think we can agree that when enough people are willing to pay a certain amount for a certain thing, that thing can be given a more or less generalized value, no?

Brian, A good friend and long time collector once told me that "timing".......right buyer and the right machine play a big part of a sale.

Naturally, with larger machines, logistics can also be a factor.

Regardless, if the right buyer comes a long....nothing matters... .

I have been collecting phonographs for forty plus years. For the most part I stayed under the radar just buying out of the original homes so I don't have a vast collection like some of the members on here. I am at the point now where I will spend some bucks to get what I've always wanted. I am not alone in this which is why you see the high prices on rare pieces and falling prices on common items unless they are in super mint shape. I was looking for a Victrola XVIII when they were higher priced but the availability of them thanks to the net and now the lower selling prices at auctions has me looking for something other than mahogany. The lack of space is also at play here but I always find room for one more. Just got a nice 9-55 for about half of what they were going for. Even if it keeps going down in price I am very happy with it and I don't care. A problem with selling anything that doesn't sell right away is that it gets a "stink"on it. This is a common term in the used car racket. Buyers see that it hasn't sold so something must be wrong with it and if they do't want it then I don't want it. Then the seller drops the price and at that point he might as well put a mustache and glasses on it because nobody is going to buy it except maybe a newbie. There is a Packard on the net that started out at $196,000 and now they can't even get an offer at $40,000. The good ol' days aren't over. They are just starting for the next generation who are going to benefit from all the legwork that has been done by those who came before them. One thing they will never get to experience is the "thrill" of standing on line at six in the morning on the coldest day of the year, to get into a home tag sale that advertised a Victor 6., and when your frozen body gets inside your frantic search ends up in the attic where the Victor 6 has somehow morphed into a Victrola VI. You swear never to do that again but who's kidding who.

Don't know if I answered your question. If not all I can say is that I saw it, looked at it, weighed all the pro's and con's and decided that I wouldn't be happy with it. Nothing at all personal against you. I don't think there is a grand conspiracy about pricing things. There are too many people to inform. When I was a train collector, there were a few guys who put out price guides for the uninformed masses and they set the values. Not happening here. There are auction results and that's about it. The guy selling a 1906 Victrola on craigslist last year had the whole internet to find out what he had but he couldn't care less. He just wanted it out of his sight so I gladly gave him the $200 for the L door first series Victrola. (not the Pooley) He found the right owner and we are both happy. You found the right owner for now and that's what the hobby is all about. Well, not all about, but mostly about.

I own 2 18's---paid a good price for both. Rule now is---don't buy as an investment, buy it because it is something you want in your collection and ENJOY. Just my opinion. ---Herb

emerson wrote:I own 2 18's---paid a good price for both. Rule now is---don't buy as an investment, buy it because it is something you want in your collection and ENJOY. Just my opinion. ---Herb

Yes Herb, that's the secret.

Clay

I retired a few years ago with a desire to be more active in our hobby. About the same time prices took a substantial dip. I enjoy buying and selling machines and I always enjoy selling things I would be proud to own. I've sold quite a few items from my collection some of which I sold for prices lower than my purchase price. My rational is the fact that I then purchased something else that I like more and was now selling at a lower price than a few years prior. I do buy machines strictly for resale. I look for authentic items in good condition but size is always a consideration. I am less likely to buy a big machine of quality than a smaller quality machine. I currently have two machine for sale in the Trader section and both a shippable. Most big machines are not worth shipping unless you get into Victrola XVIII or big Amberola type machines. As selling prices have dropped, the cost of shipping is a much higher percentage of the total transaction cost. I travel from Oregon to the Union show where I share a booth with other Northwest collectors. My booth mates and I are reluctant to bring big machines to a show because they take up so much selling space. I've seen nice big machines at Union that did not sell quickly and were nearly given away on Sunday. I have taken big machines to Union but they were pre sold. I'm getting a little off topic but if you are going to Union and hope to find a nice Victrola XVI, you are much more likely to be successful if you pre purchase a big machine. It's my opinion that prices took a dip or plunge when the economy did the same and bigger machines seem to have been hurt the most. I don't think prices have continued to drop. Jerry Blais

I am the dealer, mentioned in the opening thread, who has a VV-XVIII on eBay for $4500.

As with any product, anywhere, there is always a range of "values", depending on clientele, venue, and numerous other factors. In this case you can immediately knock off 15% for "feeding the alligator, i.e. eBay and PayPal.

Then you've got the negotiation factor: customers in the U.S. often are realistic and don't make lowball offers. Others around the world will never offer more than 40% of the asking price, and certainly will not settle on anything less that a 15-20% discount. So, if one wishes to maintain his market there, that must be priced into the global equation.

There are many other reasons for the price spread as well. As a full-time business there is lots of overhead that the ordinary collector either doesn't have or doesn't factor in: insurance, advertising, warehousing, inventory, etc. Not to forget profit, either, which remains a motivating factor for most people in business. I support my family with the proceeds from my antiques business, and quite frankly a small percentage of my sales are to "collectors". The thrust of my efforts are directed at the people who merely want to enhance the ambiance of their homes with a few nice mechanical antiques, be they phonographs, music boxes, or clocks.

And keep in mind, the "transparency" that eBay offers is not gospel; in my case only about 3% of my sales take place there. Many items never even go on my website, they are sold to waiting customers. And, as with any auction house, the quality of the pieces offered on eBay is always suspect and usually overstated by the casual sellers. Not so by the regular dealers who make great efforts to offer top-quality items, with a money-back guarantee and a reputation to protect.

Raphael

This is a very deep topic, all are great responses. If I were looking to own a machine for a short time, or even just buy and sell a machine, I would say that the smaller machines are a better investment in that department (they are more easily moved, transported, shipped etc.). Smaller machines take up less space. Smaller machines are becoming more desirable to many that have downsized to apartments, condos and smaller dwellings. I have seen full cabinet size Victrola's go for $300.00 and sit for a long time, whereas the smaller VV-IX will be sold and bring in a few hundred dollars.

All of this depends on the local markets, economy etc.

I will say that I noticed a huge drop in phonograph sales and values post 2008. At this time, we also have seen somewhat less interest in these machines as older collectors have passed on. This is not to say that interest does not exist, or that younger generations are not interested, its just that it appears the same volume of interest does not exist as it did 20 years ago.

In my opinion, there are several value basis'. One, "The Bargain", or the price that many collectors will pay for a machine even if they have that model already. Usually this applies to the more common stuff. Next "Fair Market Value" This is the price range which most collectors consider fair and reasonable, and would pay for a machine that they don't have already. Then, there is the "Retail" price level. This would be the price that many people who sell machines would like to get, and which some buyers will pay when their desire to own an example is high. This of course does not take into consideration the rarity or demand issues. In addition there are other influences such as location, time of year, shipping cost and so on.
My observations are that a given model of phonograph will have prices ranging all over the place at any given time. Especially for more common models. I did an experiment once, about ten years ago, where I was tracking and comparing selling prices of Victrolas on Ebay, over a two year period. It was amazing how some machines would sell in grade 1 condition at one price, and another time a poorer condition and same make/model machine would sell for more! The prices were all over the place!
I've learned a few lessons in 50 years of collecting, values go generally upwards in the long run (my bet is they will go up again and eventually surpass the general level they are at now). In addition, rarer machines generally do not go down as much as common machines during economic hard times. And lastly, whenever I see a machine that I consider to be higher than the market value, I know that there likely will be another one similar to it that will be offered for less. Again, this does not necessarily apply to the very rare ones.
In the case of very rare pieces, it could be impossible to find a previous sale of the same or similar machine that a price/value comparison can be made with. Therefore, this category of machine may seem to be over-priced to those collectors who are economically limited or very price conscious. I say that because, in the last ten or so years, I've been seeing an increasing number of people in the phonograph collecting hobby who have less economic restrictions on collecting than I did when I started.