Talking Machines: Death by Attrition and Survivability...

[1923VictorFan]

I was looking online about a week ago and read an article about Columbia open works machines by a Mr.Hazelcorn. In the article he listed 3 variants of the Columbia Type B listing approximate numbers of known surviving examples as 100, 250 and 500+ respectively.

Is anyone aware of any widely accepted formula used to come up with similar types of numbers for talking machines? I know, for example, that in the field of coin collecting huge numbers of Morgan and Peace silver dollars were melted first by The US Mint in the 1930's and more in recent times when silver prices have spiked. There are some broadly accepted figures about how many of these coins have been lost & how many survived.

Is there is a commonly accepted "formula" that says for example... 70% of all machines made before 1925 have not survived? or maybe "Half of all survivng machines are just "parts machines" and no longer viable"?

[Starkton]

I don't think there is a formula, but I estimate that at least 90% of all phonographs manufactured before 1918 are destroyed.

[TinfoilPhono]

I've always gone with the same opinion as Starkton, though I've expressed it the other way -- 10% survival rate. I have no hard statistics to prove it but based on some estimated production and reported survivors of rarer styles that I've studied (like the Edison School Phono) it seems to be pretty realistic.

In the field of antique wristwatches, which is what I do for a living, I have actually managed to quantify a number of particular styles, using factory production records and an enormous database of surviving serial numbers. It astounds me how close that 10% rule of thumb comes out, time and again.

[VintageTechnologies]

I don't think there is a formula, but I estimate that at least 90% of all phonographs manufactured before 1918 are destroyed.

I don't have anything concrete to base my opinion on, but I'll bet the survival rate is lower than 10%. I have heard opinions that only 2% survive. I don't believe any generalization can be made. I think that smaller and more expensive items would have been more highly prized and carefully put away to survive. By comparison, cheap and large consoles went to the curb or the maybe out to the chicken coop or barn. Has anyone besides me ever noticed how many cylinder record carton lids are covered with ancient bird poop?